Energy Transitions – Strategies for Selecting Amongst a Plethora of Technology Choices

During times of disruptive change within an industry, there are usually numerous technological innovations being promoted as “the solution”, all of which are being championed by strong advocates expounding “compelling” investment theses.

This can make it difficult to choose where to invest, which often leads to bad choices or a decision to wait until the dust settles and a winner emerges (which is almost always too late to enter the fray and expect to win the game).

In the White Paper that can be reached here, we propose that:

  • Because innovation is usually a highly iterative process, one where experimental results often redirect efforts towards new, more promising pathways, opportunities for which results can be obtained quickly and at low cost will be advantaged over ones where experimentation is slow and costly.
  • Cost to experiment, speed of experimentation, the number of players pursuing an opportunity, and the degree of collaboration between players are therefore crucial innovation success factors – factors that should be given far more weight than they traditionally are in making and updating technology development investment choices.

We further show that these success factors largely explain how unconventional reservoirs beat out several much better funded “cutting edge technology focus areas” during the first decade of the 21st century to emerge as the dominant new source of oil & gas in a world that at the time seemed destined to experience peak oil supply in the not-too-distant future.

We also speculate on how the lessons learned from this period can be profitably applied to selecting between technologies being pursued to enable “The Energy Transition” currently underway to lower-carbon fuels.

We hope you find the White Paper to be both interesting and useful. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have questions, builds, or wish to discuss the topic further.

If you don’t have time to read a full-length white paper or wish to read a synopsis first before committing the time needed, click here for a “Cliff Notes” version.